Netflix MMA Tips - Rousey vs Carano, Diaz vs Perry, Ngannou vs Lins
Netflix hosts its first live MMA event on 16 May featuring Rousey vs Carano, Nate Diaz vs Mike Perry and Francis Ngannou vs Philipe Lins from the Intuit Dome in LA.
Netflix makes history on Saturday 16 May 2026 at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles with its first-ever live MMA broadcast. The MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) card is headlined by a five-round featherweight rematch between pioneer Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano: two names that defined the early growth of women's MMA. Co-main events feature the combustible Nate Diaz against Mike Perry, and former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou against PFL veteran Philipe Lins. SA viewers will need to stay up late: main card starts 06:00 SAST on 17 May, according to Netflix Tudum.
- Rousey is the -600 favourite over Carano (+425): she is more recently active and still technically superior in grappling
- Nate Diaz at +185 offers real value against Perry: Diaz's cardio and grappling become decisive in the five-round format
- Ngannou is a -1600 near-certainty against Lins: this fight is about whether Ngannou remains the most feared puncher in heavyweight MMA
The Pick Card
Odds from Easybet and Hollywoodbets. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Odds converted from US moneylines to decimal format.
| Selection | Bookmaker | Odds | Stake | Operator CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rousey to beat Carano | Easybet | @1.17 | 4 Units | Visit Easybet |
| Diaz to beat Perry | Hollywoodbets | @2.85 | 2 Units | Visit Hollywoodbets |
| Ngannou to beat Lins | Easybet | @1.06 | 3 Units | Visit Easybet |
Fight by Fight Preview
Rousey vs Carano (Main Event: Featherweight, 145lb, 5 rounds)
Rousey is the -600 favourite and rightfully so. She is more recently active and her judo-based grappling remains elite. Carano, last seen in Bellator in 2009, is a legitimate MMA pioneer but the skills gap at elite 2026 standards is significant. Expect Rousey to drag this to the ground early and work for a submission finish. Per CBS Sports' odds analysis, the Under 1.5 rounds at -200 suggests the market anticipates a quick finish.
Diaz vs Perry (Co-Main: Welterweight, 170lb, 5 rounds)
Perry opened close to pick'em before the market moved to -225. Diaz at +185 is compelling value. The five-round format is made for Diaz's cardio and grappling credentials. Perry is a more physical, aggressive striker but Diaz's ability to win rounds with ground control is exactly what the longer format rewards. The CBS Sports piece noted: "the overlay on Diaz is too juicy to ignore": a sentiment that reflects genuine market value.
Ngannou vs Lins (Co-Feature: Heavyweight, 265lb)
Francis Ngannou at -1600 is the single most concentrated bet on the card. Lins is a PFL veteran with respectable credentials but he is not in the same tier as Ngannou's previous opponents. The key question is whether Ngannou lands cleanly enough for a first-round KO, which is his default mode of victory.
Verdict
Diaz at @2.85 is the standout value play on this card. Three fights, three clear favourites, but it is Diaz's grappling over five rounds that represents the most mispriced position on the slate. Back Nate Diaz on Hollywoodbets. Visit Hollywoodbets
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