Scotland v New Zealand tips: All Blacks attack gets the nod
New Zealand are our pick at Murrayfield after scoring 93 points across their two Bledisloe Cup wins. Scotland scored 108 in the July championship window themselves, so this is a much more demanding defensive assignment than the visitors' latest results alone suggest. Richie Mo'unga will miss it with a calf injury.
Scotland v New Zealand. Saturday, 07 November 2026, 16:10 SAST. Nations Championship. Murrayfield, Edinburgh.
Match comparison
| Focus | Recent performance | Key detail |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | Beat Australia 50-19 and 43-21 | Latest two Tests |
| Scotland in July | Beat Argentina 47-38 and Fiji 33-17 | Lost 42-28 to South Africa |
| All Blacks selection | McKenzie at ten, Jordie Barrett back at 12 | Mo'unga misses out with a calf tear |
The Bledisloe wins restored the scoring rate
New Zealand beat Australia 50-19 in Auckland and 43-21 in Sydney. Those results followed a 3-1 series defeat in South Africa, giving Dave Rennie's side a much stronger pair of performances to take into November.
The championship campaign itself has been productive. Wins over France, Italy and Ireland brought 15 points, with 121 scored across the three matches. Scotland face an opponent that has kept its attack effective across both the championship and its most recent separate series.
The French game was close at 34-32. That is the useful counterweight to the larger margins: New Zealand have had to protect a narrow lead during this competition, not simply run away from every opponent.
Scotland can score against strong opposition
Scotland beat Argentina 47-38 in July, lost 42-28 to the Boks and finished with a 33-17 win over Fiji. Their 108 points make it difficult to see New Zealand keeping the home attack quiet throughout.
The defensive figures are less reassuring. Argentina and South Africa put 80 points past Scotland between them, so there is a sizeable gap between showing attacking ambition and controlling the whole match.
That gap is the reason we favour New Zealand. The All Blacks have just produced two high-scoring wins, while Scotland's better July results still included plenty of opportunities for the opposition.
The wider programme is in our rugby tips. Our guide to SA betting sites compares account terms and payment options.
The Nations Championship guide follows the Springboks through November. It includes their schedule and the route to the final weekend.
Both sides have named full-strength teams
Rennie has picked Damian McKenzie at fly-half, with Beauden Barrett at full-back and Jordie Barrett back from injury at inside centre. Richie Mo'unga is not in the 23 as he recovers from a calf tear. Codie Taylor captains the side with Ardie Savea out.
Ethan de Groot comes in at loosehead, one of only two changes to the starting side that won in Sydney. Fletcher Newell starts at tighthead with Tyrel Lomax still absent, and Pasilio Tosi covers him from the bench.
Scotland have gone strong too. Finn Russell and Ben White pair up at half-back, Huw Jones returns alongside captain Sione Tuipulotu in midfield, and Kyle Rowe starts at full-back with Blair Kinghorn on the bench.
Rory Sutherland gets the nod over Pierre Schoeman at loosehead. Jamie Ritchie and Elliot Millar Mills withdrew injured earlier in the week, but the home back row of Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge and Jack Dempsey is a settled one.
The visitors have the better balance
Both sides have scored heavily in the championship. New Zealand's ability to follow that with 50 and 43 against Australia is the additional evidence that separates them here.
We expect an away win with Scotland contributing plenty of resistance. The home side's July defeat by the Boks showed they could score 28 and still finish well short, which is the danger against another productive visiting attack.