Kelly Criterion Calculator
Find the mathematically optimal stake size for value bets
How it works
Enter your estimated true probability and the bookmaker odds to find the optimal percentage of your bankroll to stake according to the Kelly Criterion.
Quick Example
Scenario: You estimate Sundowns have a 60% chance of winning, and the odds are 1.90.
Kelly formula: (bp - q) / b, where b = 0.90, p = 0.60, q = 0.40
Calculation: (0.90 x 0.60 - 0.40) / 0.90 = 15.6%
Kelly suggests staking 15.6% of your bankroll. Most experienced bettors use half-Kelly (7.8%) to reduce variance.
Check the accepted bet
These figures describe the entered values, not a forecast. Settlement rules, deductions and accepted prices can change the final return.