All Blacks vs Italy Tips - Nations Championship 11 July
All Blacks host Italy at Sky Stadium, Wellington in Nations Championship Round 2 on 11 July. Form, team news and our picks.
- New Zealand host Italy at Sky Stadium, Wellington on Saturday 11 July, kickoff 17:10 NZST which is 07:10 SAST, in Nations Championship Round 2.
- The All Blacks scraped past France 34-32 in round one while Italy lost 27-10 to Japan, a result well below their recent Six Nations standard under Gonzalo Quesada.
- We favour the New Zealand handicap and the total points line over the short outright moneyline price.
New Zealand survived a proper scare from France in round one and now get a shorter turnaround at home to Italy in Wellington. We expect a response from the All Blacks rather than back-to-back below-par performances, but Italy under Gonzalo Quesada are a different animal to the sides that used to visit New Zealand and lose by 50. The handicap and the tries markets carry more appeal here than the moneyline.
The Pick Card
A live price from Hollywoodbets, Betway or Easybet was not reachable at time of writing, so the figures below are market-representative prices from public odds pages. Confirm the live price before staking. 18+. T&Cs apply.
| Selection | Bookmaker | Odds | Stake | Operator CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand to win by more than 22.5 points | Hollywoodbets | @1.90 (indicative) | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Over 56.5 total match points | Betway | @1.95 (indicative) | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Both teams to score 2+ tries | Easybet | @1.80 (indicative) | 2 Units | Bet here |
The Form Line
New Zealand needed a five-try effort from Cam Roigard, Will Jordan and Peter Lakai to see off France 34-32 in Christchurch, trailing after two minutes before turning it around to lead 19-12 at the break. It was tighter than most expected from the tournament's marquee round one fixture, and the All Blacks camp has been open about wanting sharper defensive structure and better discipline this week.
Italy opened their campaign with a 27-10 loss to Japan in Tokyo, failing to add to an early try from Juan Ignacio Brex after trailing 17-10 at the break. It is a result that stings given Italy's rise under Gonzalo Quesada, whose side beat Scotland and England at home in this year's Six Nations before finishing fourth in the table.
Head to Head
| Year | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | November internationals, Turin | Italy 11 New Zealand 29 |
| 2023 | Rugby World Cup, Lyon | New Zealand 96 Italy 17 |
New Zealand have won all 17 previous Tests against Italy, though the 2024 meeting in Turin was tighter than the history suggests, with Italy competitive for long periods before falling 29-11. It is also worth noting this will be Italy's first ever Test in Wellington.
Team News
The All Blacks are expected to keep much of the group that edged France, with the coaching staff flagging defensive structure, breakdown efficiency and discipline as the week's focus areas given the short turnaround. Italy should again lean on their experienced spine of Michele Lamaro, Paolo Garbisi, Juan Ignacio Brex, Tommaso Menoncello and Ange Capuozzo, the same group that has carried their improved attacking game over the past year.
Verdict
New Zealand rarely follow one scratchy performance with another, especially at home, and we expect a more composed showing here even against an Italy side that will not simply roll over. The handicap looks the smarter route into this than the prohibitively short moneyline, and the points total has scope to climb given how both defences performed in round one.
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