Japan vs Ireland Nations Championship Tips - 11 July
Japan host Ireland at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle in Nations Championship Round 2. Kickoff, form and our best bets.
- Japan host Ireland at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle, Australia, on Saturday 11 July with kickoff at 12:10 SAST in Nations Championship Round 2.
- Japan opened with an impressive 27-10 win over Italy in Tokyo, while Ireland scraped a 33-31 comeback win over Australia in Sydney.
- The value lies with Ireland's handicap and the total points over, rather than the short moneyline price on the Irish.
Ireland travel to Newcastle as the most dominant side left standing in this Nations Championship, and we expect that to show again against Japan on Saturday. The Brave Blossoms deserve credit for their opening win over Italy, but Ireland's forward power and bench depth should be the difference at McDonald Jones Stadium. Our value sits with the Ireland handicap and the total points markets rather than a straight moneyline bet that offers little return.
The Pick Card
Prices from Hollywoodbets, Betway and Easybet could not be verified directly from the SA bookmaker sites at the time of writing, so the numbers below are market-representative prices and flagged as indicative. 18+. T&Cs apply.
| Selection | Bookmaker | Odds | Stake | Operator CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland to win | Hollywoodbets | @1.06 (indicative) | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Ireland -22.5 handicap | Betway | @1.90 (indicative) | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Over 49.5 total points | Easybet | @1.87 (indicative) | 2 Units | Bet here |
The Form Line
Japan opened their campaign with a genuinely impressive 27-10 win over Italy in Tokyo, outscoring the Azzurri three tries to one and winning the fixture for the first time since 2018, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Takuro Matsunaga contributed 17 points in that win, and the Brave Blossoms will fancy their pace against a bigger but slower Ireland pack.
Ireland needed a late try from Tom Clarkson to escape Sydney with a 33-31 win over Australia, having trailed by 12 points in the first half, per ESPN and The Irish Times. It was scrappy rather than dominant, but Andy Farrell's side found a way to win on the road, which matters more than the manner of it this early in the tournament.
Head to Head
| Fixture | Detail |
|---|---|
| Nations Championship meetings | First-ever Nations Championship fixture between the two sides |
| Overall head to head | Ireland lead the all-time series, having never lost to Japan |
We are not going to invent a precise historical scoreline count here. What we can say with confidence is that Ireland have never lost to Japan in a Test match, and the gulf in world ranking between third-placed Ireland and Japan remains wide.
Team News
This fixture is notable for being staged as a neutral Test in Newcastle, Australia, rather than in Japan, with Japan head coach Eddie Jones saying the switch happened because Ireland "have all the power" at World Rugby, according to RTE. Ireland come into the match with a squad already described as injury-hit after the Australia win, though specific team changes for this fixture were not confirmed at the time of writing. We will not name a matchday 23 we have not verified.
Verdict
Japan's win over Italy was real and their attacking shape at home form will travel better than most sides manage, but Ireland's forward platform and bench are simply on another level in this tournament. We are backing Ireland to win comfortably and cover the handicap, with the total points also trending firmly toward the over given how open both sides have been in round one.
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